Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0af2…de45 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,185 (+1%) realized +$1,185 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%24W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$1,540per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$20
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$113
other 38% +$110
sports 11% +$1,142
culture 3% −$8
economics 2% −$6
tech 2% +$1
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +4.9% -5.1% 11% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 87 +2.3% -7.5% 8% 5% -9.0%
all 145 +3.3% -6.5% 17% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 13% -9.1%
10% -15.4% 13% -17.8%
15% -23.6% 12% -25.7%
20% -31.1% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,243) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$12 · ×8.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,185
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses24 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage129d
Avg bet$1,540
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $2,676 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $1,951 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $248 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,135 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $2,614 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,677 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 14 $1,647 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $430 +$5 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $4,179 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,056 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,639 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,743 −$5 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $3,285 −$4 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,804 −$4 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 08 $84 +$35 +42%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,926 −$4 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $4,264 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,358 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,233 −$4 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,646 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,675 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $3,315 −$5 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $717 +$2 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $5,564 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,413 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,009 −$4 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $48 +$73 +152%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $66 −$66 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $4,170 −$5 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,374 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $3,721 −$5 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $2,930 −$4 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $4,670 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,666 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $3,313 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 3h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $229 3h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $229 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $268 7h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $268 9h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $220 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $220 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $248 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $248 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,007 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,134 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,135 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $357 6d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $357 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,525 8d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,527 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,679 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,682 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,674 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,677 9d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 10d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 10d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $1,645 10d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $1,647 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $430 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,646 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,648 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,676 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 479 history records