Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0af3…8598 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,838 (+13%) realized +$1,426 · open +$412
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%33W / 34L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,930
7 days+$2,519
14 days+$2,237
30 days+$2,237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,764
other 3% −$15
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +5.2% -4.8% 55% 55% +15.1%
≤30d 67 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 48% +7.2%
≤90d 67 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 48% +7.2%
all 67 +1.1% -8.5% 49% 48% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 48% +7.2%
10% -17.3% 43% -3.0%
15% -25.2% 37% -12.4%
20% -32.6% 31% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$87 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,210
Realized+$1,426
Unrealized+$412
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses33 / 34
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage11d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 60¢ 92¢ $798 $1,210 +$412 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $210 +$188 +89%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $384 +$582 +152%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $222 +$80 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,134 +$395 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $201 +$91 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,471 +$468 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $253 +$193 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $498 +$349 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $533 +$547 +103%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $201 −$47 -23%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $523 +$107 +20%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $262 +$310 +118%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $200 −$197 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $125 −$123 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $254 −$12 -5%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $153 −$101 -66%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $193 −$189 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $214 −$210 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $197 −$193 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $126 −$67 -53%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $108 +$114 +106%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $384 −$98 -26%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $201 +$78 +39%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $103 −$101 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $177 +$172 +97%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $77 +$42 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$158 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $71 −$65 -92%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $105 +$157 +150%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $246 +$108 +44%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $92 +$154 +168%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $179 −$177 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $153 −$123 -80%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $101 +$20 +20%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $39 −$36 -92%
Set 1 Winner: Zhu vs Kraus Jun 15 $102 +$118 +116%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $78 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $59 +$43 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $28 +$31 +109%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $62 −$3 -5%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 08 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $67 −$19 -28%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $469 −$362 -77%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $47 −$13 -28%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $96 −$33 -34%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $45 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $296 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $410 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $101 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $398 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $966 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $384 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 52¢ $210 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 73¢ $222 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $1,529 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $200 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 83¢ $328 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 84¢ $301 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $292 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $1,938 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $201 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $93 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 58¢ $304 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $399 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 75¢ $302 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 82¢ $302 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 83¢ $375 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $446 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $846 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,080 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $498 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $99 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $199 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $235 26h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P SELL Walczaki 37¢ $155 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 100¢ $630 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,209.77 · official $1,209.77 (match) · 161 history records