Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0af3…deb3 world 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$1
other 22% $0
sports 22% −$2
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 11% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 8% -9.4%
all 28 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage461d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $29 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 -8%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $65 $0 +0%
Peyton Watson: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 15 $67 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 06 $11 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $10 $0 +5%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $13 $0 -2%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $25 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 29h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $26 33h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $26 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $4 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 55¢ $26 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $23 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $26 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $21 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $24 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $3.91 (match) · 74 history records