Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0af5…154c sports 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,082 (+20%) realized +$2,088 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%51W / 43L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$2,576
crypto 30% −$238
other 9% −$484
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -7.4% -16.2% 40% 40% -0.1%
≤30d 6 -22.8% -30.2% 33% 33% -42.5%
≤90d 84 +10.2% -0.3% 58% 58% +7.7%
all 94 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 54% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 54% +7.5%
10% -16.7% 52% -2.8%
15% -24.8% 47% -12.2%
20% -32.2% 38% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$70 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized+$2,088
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses51 / 43
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage135d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 58¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $16 +$25 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$13 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 03 $45 −$45 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $49 −$48 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 27 $190 +$221 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 26 $88 +$256 +290%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 26 $174 +$119 +69%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 23 $147 +$115 +78%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $248 +$177 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 22 $164 +$81 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 22 $49 +$40 +81%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $55 −$54 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $394 +$180 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 21 $429 −$429 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 21 $234 −$225 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 21 $85 +$79 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 21 $323 +$262 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 21 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 21 $275 +$146 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 21 $207 −$199 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 21 $220 −$210 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 21 $107 −$101 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 21 $206 +$88 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 21 $133 +$62 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 21 $90 −$87 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 21 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 21 $47 +$33 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 21 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 21 $5 +$19 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 21 $26 +$45 +170%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $204 −$200 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 20 $56 +$16 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $104 +$30 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $419 +$417 +100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 105.5 May 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $207 +$110 +53%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 May 19 $47 +$71 +152%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 19 $61 −$28 -46%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $318 +$417 +131%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 19 $329 −$23 -7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $249 +$73 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 May 18 $41 +$68 +167%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $102 +$90 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $50 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $29 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $25 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 BUY Over 38¢ $45 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $49 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 SELL Over 99¢ $410 33d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 45¢ $190 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $344 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $62 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $21 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.43 · official $193.43 (match) · 228 history records