Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0afb…0b12 crypto 278 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$843 (-10%) realized −$851 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%103W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day51.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$457
7 days−$637
14 days−$709
30 days−$993
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$757
sports 21% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -10.9% -19.4% 32% 32% -32.6%
≤30d 275 +8.7% -1.7% 37% 37% -20.5%
≤90d 275 +8.7% -1.7% 37% 37% -20.5%
all 275 +8.7% -1.7% 37% 37% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 37% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 37% -28.1%
15% -19.7% 36% -35.0%
20% -27.5% 35% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$30 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$851
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses103 / 172
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions3
Markets (closed)275 / 278
History coverage26d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day51.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 63¢ 72¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+13%)
ITF Tokyo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Hunter Heck Keisuke Saitoh 52¢ 50¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
ITF Klosters: Kai Wehnelt vs Jan Kumstat Jan Kumstat 56¢ 48¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$56 +530%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $63 −$56 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$17 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$26 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$29 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$40 -85%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $54 +$78 +146%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $44 −$30 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $42 −$40 -96%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $44 −$43 -99%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $12 +$12 +101%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $11 +$11 +107%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $45 +$10 +23%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $45 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $41 +$39 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$47 -96%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Lehecka/Mensik vs Johnson/Zielinski Jun 15 $61 −$61 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $116 −$55 -48%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $45 +$71 +158%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$20 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tokyo: Keisuke Saitoh vs Hunter Heck BUY Keisuke Saitoh 52¢ $29 1m
ITF Klosters: Kai Wehnelt vs Jan Kumstat BUY Jan Kumstat 56¢ $5 4m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C SELL Team Resilience 78¢ $34 11m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 61¢ $27 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $20 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $41 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.11 · official $111.12 (match) · 1513 history records