Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0afd…6fa6 crypto 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$637 (-7%) realized −$637 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate65%123W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$93
14 days−$42
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$629
other 8% −$39
politics 1% −$15
economics 0% $0
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -41.0% -46.6% 50% 38% -36.9%
≤30d 27 -3.2% -12.4% 74% 63% -15.3%
≤90d 74 -7.3% -16.1% 77% 49% -17.5%
all 189 -10.6% -19.1% 65% 43% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 43% -16.7%
10% -26.8% 17% -24.6%
15% -33.9% 9% -31.9%
20% -40.4% 5% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$27 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$637
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses123 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 189
History coverage155d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $47 +$7 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $35 +$8 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $60 +$8 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $48 −$40 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$11 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $19 +$7 +39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$7 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $41 +$11 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $49 +$11 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $39 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $78 −$38 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $68 +$9 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $60 +$9 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $52 +$8 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 +$6 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $38 +$4 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $21 +$6 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $27 +$5 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $13 +$3 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 28? May 28 $12 −$1 -11%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 27? May 27 $21 +$4 +21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 29? Apr 29 $112 −$111 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $173 −$120 -70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 26? Apr 26 $106 +$16 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 25? Apr 25 $45 +$12 +26%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 24? Apr 24 $81 +$13 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 23? Apr 23 $70 +$11 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $65 +$5 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2,350 on April 21? Apr 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 21? Apr 21 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on April 20? Apr 21 $59 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $55 +$4 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on April 19? Apr 20 $53 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 19? Apr 19 $52 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 18? Apr 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on April 17? Apr 18 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 17? Apr 17 $19 −$16 -87%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 16? Apr 16 $16 +$3 +18%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on April 15? Apr 16 $15 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 98¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 84¢ $47 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 93¢ $38 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 82¢ $28 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL No 98¢ $68 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 87¢ $6 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 87¢ $7 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY No 87¢ $48 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? SELL No 14¢ $9 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 74¢ $48 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $51 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $32 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $8 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL No 13¢ $6 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY No 7¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 98¢ $26 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $39 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $26 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $52 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $41 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 81¢ $49 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 453 history records