Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b00…2a07 crypto 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$343 (-10%) realized −$343 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%69W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.3% -6.5% 74% 74% -12.8%
≤30d 81 -11.9% -20.3% 44% 37% -23.4%
≤90d 137 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 41% -21.3%
all 137 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 41% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 41% -21.3%
10% -25.0% 34% -28.8%
15% -32.2% 24% -35.7%
20% -38.9% 14% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$343
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses69 / 68
Open positions0
Markets (closed)137 / 137
History coverage51d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 137 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 05 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 05 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 03 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 30 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $41 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 30 $26 −$19 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 30 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $26 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $52 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records