Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0b00…4bb1 world 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$80 (-2%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$48
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$41
sports 24% −$45
politics 23% −$12
other 12% +$50
finance 1% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -13.3% -21.6% 33% 11% -8.8%
≤90d 17 -20.7% -28.3% 29% 6% -11.3%
all 17 -20.7% -28.3% 29% 6% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 6% -11.3%
10% -35.2% 0% -19.8%
15% -41.4% 0% -27.6%
20% -47.2% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage90d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? Jun 24 $374 +$2 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 24 $374 −$5 -1%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? Jun 20 $307 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 14 $487 +$53 +11%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? Jun 14 $484 −$2 -0%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $470 +$40 +8%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? Jun 02 $478 −$10 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? May 28 $43 −$15 -36%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 27 $39 −$37 -97%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) May 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 03 $26 −$3 -11%
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) Apr 21 $436 +$20 +5%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $434 +$2 +0%
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) Apr 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $89 −$24 -26%
Will Iran strike the United Kingdom by March 31? Mar 27 $109 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $376 18m
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $374 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $369 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $374 4h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $307 4d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $307 4d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 90¢ $487 10d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $482 10d
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $484 10d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $470 22d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $468 22d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $478 22d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $28 27d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $4 27d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $6 27d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $6 27d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $6 27d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $4 27d
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $17 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 28d
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) BUY Crystal Palace FC 6¢ $30 52d
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-1.5) BUY Crystal Palace FC 6¢ $28 52d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $12 52d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $12 52d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 3¢ $13 52d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 3¢ $13 52d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Gaziantep FK 96¢ $436 65d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $436 65d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $434 65d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Konyaspor 6¢ $23 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records