Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b01…81a3 world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 425d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$19
other 26% $0
culture 4% $0
politics 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -7.2% -16.0% 20% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 15 -7.2% -16.0% 20% 0% -12.3%
all 31 -2.9% -12.1% 39% 3% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 3% -11.5%
10% -20.5% 0% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

425d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage425d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $111 +$1 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $53 −$1 -2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $25 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 21 $2 $0 +21%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? Apr 27 $18 $0 -2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? Apr 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will Wim Eijk be the next pope? Apr 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 24 $19 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 40m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $24 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $28 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $26 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $20 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $26 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $26 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $27 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $14 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $13 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $5 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $22 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records