Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
0B 0x0b02…bd8d crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+12%) realized +$46 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$68
crypto 47% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.2% +18.7% 86% 71% +25.6%
≤30d 7 +31.2% +18.7% 86% 71% +25.6%
≤90d 7 +31.2% +18.7% 86% 71% +25.6%
all 7 +31.2% +18.7% 86% 71% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 71% +25.6%
10% +7.3% 57% +13.5%
15% -3.0% 29% +2.6%
20% -12.5% 29% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$27 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.79 per $1 lost it wins $4.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$59 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$35 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$10 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $76 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $37 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 83¢ $49 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.31 · official $99.32 (match) · 18 history records