Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b0a…b325 crypto 53 markets active 2d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+4%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day80.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$2
other 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -15.9% -23.9% 35% 35% -10.8%
≤30d 49 -15.9% -23.9% 35% 35% -10.8%
≤90d 49 -15.9% -23.9% 35% 35% -10.8%
all 49 -15.9% -23.9% 35% 35% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 35% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 33% -19.3%
15% -37.8% 31% -27.1%
20% -43.9% 27% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$6 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +125%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$5 +223%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$6 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$16 +312%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 5¢ $1 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.03 · official $4.03 (match) · 182 history records