Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0b0b…0607 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$511 (+22%) realized +$487 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$248
7 days+$267
14 days+$470
30 days+$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$108
sports 39% +$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.7% +19.2% 83% 83% +30.3%
≤30d 12 +29.6% +17.3% 75% 75% +28.1%
≤90d 12 +29.6% +17.3% 75% 75% +28.1%
all 12 +29.6% +17.3% 75% 75% +28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 75% +28.1%
10% +6.1% 75% +15.8%
15% -4.2% 75% +4.6%
20% -13.6% 67% -5.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$65 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,168
Realized+$487
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage16d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 91¢ $994 $1,018 +$24 (+2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $101 +$53 +52%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$55 +55%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$69 +46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $76 +$65 +86%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 53¢ $51 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $50 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 65¢ $101 28h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $101 28h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 48¢ $51 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 7d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $76 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $50 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $96 10d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 10d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $102 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $997 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,167.51 · official $1,167.51 (match) · 41 history records