Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b13…5957 world 206 markets active 4h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$36,247 (+14%) realized +$37,993 · open −$1,746
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate53%107W / 94L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,245per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,026
7 days+$36,006
14 days+$37,349
30 days+$41,630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$32,206
politics 14% +$4,480
other 7% +$554
crypto 6% +$3,416
economics 5% +$863
sports 2% −$1,035
tech 0% +$1,057
culture 0% −$12
finance 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +107.6% +87.8% 100% 60% +134.9%
≤30d 40 +9.6% -0.8% 60% 35% +62.7%
≤90d 95 -1.3% -10.7% 49% 32% +23.2%
all 201 -1.1% -10.5% 53% 29% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 29% +6.4%
10% -19.1% 20% -3.8%
15% ← realistic here -26.9% 13% -13.1%
20% -34.0% 10% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,162) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$546 vs −$164 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$2,109
Realized+$37,993
Unrealized−$1,746
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses107 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions5
Markets (closed)201 / 206
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$1,245
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $3,257 $1,939 −$1,318 (-40%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes $452 $96 −$356 (-79%)
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes $60 $37 −$23 (-38%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $34 −$11 (-25%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $41 $3 −$38 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $8,008 +$1,026 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $204 +$11 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $3,024 +$48 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $9,415 +$31,402 +334%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,905 +$3,519 +185%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,807 +$1,334 +74%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $432 +$120 +28%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $206 −$39 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $4,654 −$121 -3%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 10 $21 +$1 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $840 +$70 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $59 −$22 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 08 $200 −$65 -32%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $2,731 +$43 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,542 −$11 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $592 +$13 +2%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $1,019 +$580 +57%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $262 +$19 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $491 +$118 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,358 −$679 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $308 −$114 -37%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 07 $992 +$839 +85%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $657 −$331 -50%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Jun 05 $1,162 +$573 +49%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2,327 +$3,570 +153%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,605 +$840 +52%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,305 −$111 -8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $207 +$43 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $210 −$209 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $634 +$40 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $407 −$407 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1,579 +$50 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,047 −$46 -4%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $252 +$118 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $108 −$70 -64%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 27 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 27 $219 −$200 -92%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? May 27 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $508 +$311 +61%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 14 $66 +$1 +1%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 12 $208 +$341 +164%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $541 +$86 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 06 $469 −$5 -1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev? May 06 $20 −$10 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $302 +$84 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? May 05 $158 −$14 -9%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? May 04 $135 −$109 -81%
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b May 02 $1,056 +$140 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $601 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $500 19h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9,034 22h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $2,504 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $711 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $44 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $55 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $28 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $367 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $58 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $440 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $725 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $114 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $349 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $689 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $42 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $9 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $9 40h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $9 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $483 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $250 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $7 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $22 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $59 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $37 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $200 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $740 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $57 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $2,001 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,963 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,109.01 · official $2,109.01 (match) · 3500 history records