Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0B 0x0b14…b57f other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$41 (+8%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate65%24W / 13L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$18
14 days+$5
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$47
sports 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 14% -3.2%
≤30d 15 +45.4% +31.5% 87% 20% +1.8%
≤90d 23 +19.8% +8.4% 61% 13% -0.4%
all 37 +6.2% -4.0% 65% 32% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 32% -2.7%
10% -13.1% 11% -12.0%
15% -21.5% 3% -20.5%
20% -29.2% 3% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses24 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage102d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$3 +7%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $32 +$4 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$18 -46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 27 $8 +$53 +650%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $3 $0 -11%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? Apr 10 $3 $0 -8%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $3 $0 -7%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 10 $3 $0 -3%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $3 $0 +7%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 21 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $3 $0 +14%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-16? Mar 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $4 $0 +10%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Mar 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 99¢ $43 23m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 98¢ $32 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 92¢ $30 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $31 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $40 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $30 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 85¢ $31 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $30 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $37 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $32 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 98¢ $22 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 89¢ $20 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $20 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $20 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 81¢ $20 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $20 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $20 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $20 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $20 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 94¢ $21 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $20 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $24 8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records