Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0b14…3ca3 sports 319 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,716 (-8%) realized −$7,780 · open +$64
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%127W / 182L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$1,670est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,707
7 days−$2,833
14 days−$2,327
30 days+$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$7,027
other 11% −$401
crypto 0% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 39% -24.9%
≤30d 175 +3.7% -6.2% 46% 44% -5.7%
≤90d 309 -6.9% -15.8% 41% 40% -15.0%
all 309 -6.9% -15.8% 41% 40% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 40% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 39% -23.2%
15% -31.2% 39% -30.6%
20% -38.0% 36% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$241 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$2,216
Realized−$7,780
Unrealized+$64
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses127 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,670
Open positions11
Markets (closed)309 / 319
History coverage58d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 80¢ $396 $477 +$81 (+20%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $396 $393 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $337 $345 +$8 (+2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 57¢ 64¢ $224 $253 +$29 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $193 $167 −$26 (-14%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 70¢ $116 $151 +$35 (+31%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 57¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $99 $102 +$3 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $132 $91 −$40 (-31%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $95 $71 −$24 (-25%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 21 $0 $0 —%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $529 −$330 -62%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $337 −$337 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $99 +$103 +104%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $121 +$99 +82%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 +$147 +146%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $310 +$198 +64%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $970 +$652 +67%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $189 −$119 -63%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $413 +$313 +76%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $713 +$346 +49%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $101 −$6 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$115 +114%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $117 +$97 +83%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $223 +$217 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $637 +$286 +45%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $312 −$309 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 +$99 +64%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $146 +$233 +159%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $293 −$291 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $446 −$316 -71%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $154 +$99 +64%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $353 +$4 +1%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 18 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $117 −$116 -99%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $138 +$98 +71%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $356 −$352 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $156 −$154 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 −$99 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $296 +$298 +101%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $116 −$36 -32%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $267 −$264 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $340 +$194 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $122 −$121 -99%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $243 −$63 -26%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $240 −$239 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $296 −$292 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $877 +$481 +55%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 16 $322 −$317 -99%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $237 −$234 -99%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $345 +$381 +110%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $99 +$231 +233%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $101 +$208 +206%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $99 +$121 +122%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $301 +$203 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium $2 27m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $199 27m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $80 34m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 34m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 34m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $287 55m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 55m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $133 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $110 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $98 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $400 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $34 2h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $337 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 57¢ $218 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $99 16h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $101 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 57¢ $133 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $161 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $340 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $5 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $6 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $3 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $8 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $56 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $1 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $6 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $7 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 58¢ $66 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,216.36 · official $2,212.19 (match) · 1394 history records