Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0B
0x0b18…2639
weather · 1071 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$810 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$745 · open −$66
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$96
Realized−$745
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses388 / 575
Open positions68
Markets (closed)963 / 1071
History coverage207d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 68 History 963 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$12
14 days−$33
30 days−$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Yes 46¢ 95¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+105%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 25¢ 86¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+246%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 28¢ 96¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+243%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 20¢ 25¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 48¢ 58¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Yes 46¢ 99¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+115%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Yes 30¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 13¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Yes 44¢ 43¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$5 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$12 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$50 +1376%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $3 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 +$3 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +186%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$12 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$4 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$16 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$15 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$3 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$36 +485%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$5 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 75°F or below on June 1 Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$8 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$15 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$8 +335%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$810
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 16¢ $0 10m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 12m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 14m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 346 +1.5% -8.2% 43% 43% -9.1%
≤30d 781 -11.1% -19.5% 38% 37% -28.3%
≤90d 946 -6.7% -15.6% 40% 39% -18.2%
all 963 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 39% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 39% -17.7%
10% -23.4% 37% -25.6%
15% -30.8% 36% -32.8%
20% -37.6% 33% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.35 · official $96.35 (match) · 2302 history records