Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b19…462b other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$105 (-46%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 43% −$46
other 28% −$33
politics 22% −$19
economics 5% −$11
world 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-72.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 -85.9% -87.2% 0% 0% -81.8%
≤90d 13 -75.1% -77.5% 8% 8% -60.3%
all 29 -69.4% -72.3% 7% 7% -59.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.3% 7% -59.0%
10% -74.9% 7% -62.9%
15% -77.4% 7% -66.5%
20% -79.6% 7% -69.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage147d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Leeds United FC 2 - 1 Burnley FC? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 25 $7 −$3 -44%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 25 $24 −$10 -43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10? May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8? May 08 $26 −$15 -57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8? May 08 $25 +$17 +68%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 9? May 08 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 2? May 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Feb 09 $2 −$1 -73%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Feb 09 $1 $0 -28%
Trump out as President before 2027? Feb 09 $4 $0 -6%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement? Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? Jan 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Jan 30 $5 +$6 +128%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jan 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Question Jan 28 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Jan 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 26 $5 −$1 -27%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $6 40h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $4 24d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $6 24d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 37d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $9 40d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $7 40d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 40d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 40d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 41d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8? SELL Yes 70¢ $41 41d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 9? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 41d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes $7 41d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 42d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8? BUY Yes 45¢ $26 42d
Exact Score: Leeds United FC 2 - 1 Burnley FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 48d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 2? BUY Yes $5 48d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? BUY Yes $5 48d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY Yes $14 48d
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 129d
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? SELL Yes $1 129d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 129d
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? BUY No 11¢ $4 137d
Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 139d
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? BUY Yes $1 139d
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese BUY No $1 139d
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31? BUY Yes $1 139d
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? BUY No $1 139d
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 140d
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $2 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.73 · official $24.73 (match) · 48 history records