trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -85.9% | -87.2% | 0% | 0% | -81.8% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -75.1% | -77.5% | 8% | 8% | -60.3% |
| all | 29 | -69.4% | -72.3% | 7% | 7% | -59.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -72.3% | 7% | -59.0% |
| 10% | -74.9% | 7% | -62.9% |
| 15% | -77.4% | 7% | -66.5% |
| 20% | -79.6% | 7% | -69.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $25 | $25 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 17 | $6 | −$6 | -96% |
| Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? | Jun 17 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? | Jun 17 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Exact Score: Leeds United FC 2 - 1 Burnley FC? | Jun 17 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 10? | Jun 17 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | Jun 17 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | May 25 | $7 | −$3 | -44% |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | May 25 | $24 | −$10 | -43% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10? | May 09 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 8? | May 08 | $26 | −$15 | -57% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 8? | May 08 | $25 | +$17 | +68% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 9? | May 08 | $7 | −$7 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 2? | May 01 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Will Russia join the Board of Peace? | Feb 09 | $2 | −$1 | -73% |
| Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | Feb 09 | $1 | $0 | -28% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Feb 09 | $4 | $0 | -6% |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? | Feb 01 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement? | Jan 30 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese | Jan 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31? | Jan 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January? | Jan 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? | Jan 30 | $5 | +$6 | +128% |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Jan 29 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Jan 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Question | Jan 28 | $2 | −$1 | -29% |
| Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? | Jan 26 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Jan 26 | $5 | −$1 | -27% |
| U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? | Jan 23 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | Jan 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |