Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0B 0x0b20…2f51 crypto 44 markets active 3d ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$26
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$31
sports 31% +$40
world 7% −$15
other 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +32.3% +19.7% 100% 50% +7.0%
≤30d 9 +17.9% +6.7% 56% 44% +19.3%
≤90d 12 +29.1% +16.8% 50% 42% +20.6%
all 44 -13.2% -21.5% 39% 34% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 34% -13.9%
10% -29.0% 32% -22.1%
15% -35.9% 27% -29.7%
20% -42.2% 23% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage114d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $14 $0 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$4 +37%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$13 +262%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$20 +197%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$20 +388%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $3 −$3 -98%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 23 $3 +$4 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Feb 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 22 $3 −$2 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Feb 22 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 22 $4 +$3 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 22 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 22 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $4 +$9 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Feb 22 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 22 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Feb 22 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Feb 22 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 22 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Feb 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Feb 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 22 $4 +$8 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Feb 22 $4 +$5 +129%
Will Geoff Neal win by KO or TKO? Feb 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 1¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $3 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 5¢ $2 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 13¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $5 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 11d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY FlyQuest 48¢ $5 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $5 14d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Sean Strickland 100¢ $25 39d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $5 39d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 58¢ $10 39d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Suns 28¢ $3 64d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 98d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records