Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b22…ddca crypto 310 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$70,569 (-17%) realized −$70,569 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%137W / 172L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,331per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$969est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$375
7 days−$5,481
14 days−$10,188
30 days−$13,541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$47,095
sports 27% −$26,070
other 1% −$3,159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -12.0% -20.3% 45% 45% -23.8%
≤30d 26 -25.5% -32.6% 38% 38% -38.1%
≤90d 107 -17.3% -25.2% 41% 41% -27.3%
all 309 -11.0% -19.5% 44% 44% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -26.3%
10% -27.2% 44% -33.4%
15% -34.2% 44% -39.8%
20% -40.7% 43% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,665) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,136 vs −$1,357 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70,569
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses137 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$969
Open positions0
Markets (closed)309 / 310
History coverage119d
Avg bet$1,331
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 309 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $1,023 −$1,000 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $1,133 +$900 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 28 $1,329 +$632 +48%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3,874 −$3,802 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $2,363 +$1,435 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $1,039 −$1,000 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $1,138 +$1,018 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $2,055 −$1,000 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $1,341 +$1,045 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $2,055 −$848 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $527 −$500 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $1,037 +$1,067 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $2,061 +$1,529 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $1,934 +$2,089 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $1,206 +$880 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $785 −$785 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $2,098 −$2,034 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $1,718 −$1,665 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $1,732 $0 +0%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $2,349 −$2,349 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $1,334 +$870 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,992 −$1,962 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4,809 −$4,707 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $772 −$748 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $1,759 −$1,704 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $931 −$900 -97%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Apr 08 $249 −$249 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $250 −$250 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5 Apr 07 $1,330 −$1,330 -100%
Girona FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 06 $1,000 +$1,337 +134%
Juventus FC vs. Genoa CFC: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $2,608 +$2,385 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 06 $697 −$697 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 06 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score Apr 06 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $1,037 −$1,037 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 05 $1,052 −$1,052 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Angers SCO vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $1,000 +$1,051 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 05 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $574 −$574 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 05 $998 −$998 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 05 $1,000 +$1,032 +103%
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Shimizu S-Pulse: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $348 −$348 -100%
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs. Portland Timbers: O/U 4.5 Apr 05 $501 −$501 -100%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 05 $500 +$721 +144%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5 Apr 05 $626 +$1,190 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 05 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $486 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $71 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $467 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $486 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $230 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $313 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $66 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $644 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $379 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $96 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY No 37¢ $3,874 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1,023 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1,031 38h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $253 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $786 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $696 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $339 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $873 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $259 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $289 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $504 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1,003 41h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1138 history records