Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0b24…1386 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$459per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$7
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$40
politics 1% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.2% -18.8% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -19.2% -26.9% 80% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -19.2% -26.9% 80% 0% -9.5%
all 10 -19.2% -26.9% 80% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -33.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -40.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -46.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$459
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $1,550 +$15 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $1,536 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $1,152 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $38 −$36 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $38 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records