Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0B 0x0b24…6a9c sports 106 markets active 14h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+2%) realized +$220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%50W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$136est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,073
7 days−$1,431
14 days−$534
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$389
other 42% −$430
world 2% −$263
crypto 2% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -17.6% -25.4% 37% 34% -27.7%
≤30d 106 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 44% -11.0%
≤90d 106 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 44% -11.0%
all 106 -1.0% -10.4% 47% 44% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 44% -11.0%
10% -19.0% 38% -19.5%
15% -26.8% 32% -27.3%
20% -34.0% 26% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$69 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses50 / 56
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage22d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $326 −$263 -81%
Will Serbia win on 2026-05-31? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $57 −$8 -14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $36 +$23 +64%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $380 −$198 -52%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 22 $168 +$30 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 22 $249 +$58 +23%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 22 $43 +$16 +37%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $57 +$117 +206%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 22 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $33 +$73 +223%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $77 −$77 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $500 −$500 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $91 −$91 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $251 −$251 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $56 −$23 -42%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $102 −$11 -11%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 +$195 +670%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 +$23 +47%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $43 −$3 -8%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $40 +$36 +89%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$10 +34%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 +$10 +37%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $82 +$50 +61%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$20 -38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 +$71 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $33 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 35¢ $33 13h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $56 14h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 14h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $91 17h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 66¢ $91 18h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $41 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $82 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $102 28h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $224 34h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $29 37h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $29 37h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 37h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $31 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $48 40h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $62 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $40 42h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $40 42h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $43 42h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 42h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $33 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $77 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $77 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $40 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $35 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 269 history records