Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b26…f3ef sports 638 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (143 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-2%) realized −$159 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate57%365W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day143.0pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$60
14 days−$300
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$255
finance 19% −$43
weather 11% −$27
other 8% −$5
crypto 4% +$31
politics 2% −$10
world 1% +$8
tech 0% +$6
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (143 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -9.9% -18.5% 68% 26% -12.9%
≤30d 643 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 34% -13.5%
≤90d 643 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 34% -13.5%
all 643 -2.3% -11.6% 57% 34% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 34% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 19% -21.7%
15% -27.8% 11% -29.3%
20% -34.9% 8% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$740
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses365 / 278
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)643 / 638
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day143.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 643 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $738 $740 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in June? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 26 $781 −$39 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $17 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 22 $11 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 22 $9 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 20 $27 −$4 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$5 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 +$5 +16%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-23? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $2 +$2 +69%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $4 $0 -3%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $14 +$5 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 97¢ $150 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 97¢ $592 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 85¢ $84 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 85¢ $574 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL No 85¢ $84 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 86¢ $157 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 87¢ $88 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 88¢ $132 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 88¢ $97 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 88¢ $100 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 89¢ $180 4d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 89¢ $27 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY No 2¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 6d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 6d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 59¢ $2 6d
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 53¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 57¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $739.99 · official $739.99 (match) · 3500 history records