Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:20:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0B 0x0b2a…0a73 sports 1651 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$535 (+2%) realized +$547 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%810W / 643L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day47.2pace
Fees−$354est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$2,717
other 21% +$747
world 0% +$15
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 264 +18.5% +7.2% 62% 54% +9.2%
≤30d 1258 +13.2% +2.5% 58% 53% +4.0%
≤90d 1453 +10.5% +0.0% 56% 51% +2.0%
all 1453 +10.5% +0.0% 56% 51% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.0% 51% +2.0%
10% ← realistic here -9.6% 48% -7.7%
15% -18.3% 45% -16.6%
20% -26.3% 41% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$1,088
Realized+$547
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses810 / 643
Est. fees paid−$354
Open positions52
Markets (closed)1453 / 1651
History coverage45d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day47.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 1453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
ITF Monastir: Aziz Ouakaa vs Andrea Colombo Andrea Colombo 40¢ 63¢ $27 $43 +$16 (+58%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Renata Zarazua 77¢ 80¢ $38 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $35 $37 +$3 (+7%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 34¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 84¢ 94¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 62¢ 63¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Matteo Arnaldi 64¢ 55¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-14%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 52¢ 57¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+11%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 445 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Osorio vs Tomljanovic Jun 20 $20 +$15 +79%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $445 +$60 +14%
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Ito (+1.5) Jun 20 $9 +$6 +70%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 20 $18 +$1 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Dietrich vs Wehnelt Jun 20 $27 +$13 +48%
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio Jun 20 $9 $0 -4%
ITF Klosters: Adrienn Nagy vs Julia Stusek Jun 20 $17 $0 -2%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $18 +$17 +97%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $18 +$16 +90%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $17 +$17 +101%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $17 +$18 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Monaco vs. Paris Basketball: O/U 182.5 Jun 19 $18 +$17 +93%
ITF Irvine: Spencer Johnson vs Neo Niedner Jun 19 $38 +$11 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Wolf vs Langmo Jun 19 $56 +$24 +44%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $14 +$1 +5%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 19 $19 +$16 +83%
Set Handicap: Contri (-1.5) vs Valiente (+1.5) Jun 19 $14 +$11 +73%
Set Handicap: Kuzmanov (-1.5) vs Kovalik (+1.5) Jun 19 $16 +$9 +52%
Poznan: Dalibor Svrcina vs Gustavo Heide Jun 19 $13 +$12 +93%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 19 $19 +$16 +83%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $12 +$16 +134%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $16 +$19 +114%
ITF Bolszewo: Briana Szabo vs Victoria Bosio Jun 19 $37 +$21 +58%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -99%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Noah Karma Jun 19 $19 −$3 -17%
Set 1 Winner: Zhang vs Virtanen Jun 19 $22 +$14 +65%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$15 +73%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $309 +$39 +13%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Simeon Stankovic vs Branko Djuric Jun 19 $27 +$1 +5%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $75 −$5 -6%
ITF Klosters: Berta Passola vs Laura Mair Jun 19 $12 $0 -1%
Set 1 Winner: Brown vs Lazarov Jun 19 $24 +$14 +57%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Ilay Yoruk Jun 19 $18 −$6 -32%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $19 −$18 -99%
ITF Monastir: Billy Blaydes vs Paul Inchauspe Jun 19 $9 −$2 -24%
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Weronika Ewald Jun 19 $17 +$2 +13%
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 19 $17 −$2 -9%
ITF Bucharest: Alesia Breaz vs Daria Yesypchuk Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Guna (-1.5) vs Papoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $7 −$1 -11%
ITF Tokyo: Renta Tokuda vs Naoki Nakagawa Jun 19 $12 −$2 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$16 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Set Handicap: Barsukov (-1.5) vs Lange (+1.5) Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$18 +90%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 19 $14 +$12 +83%
Set 1 Winner: Feldbausch vs Gurri Jun 19 $21 −$21 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 84¢ $25 10m
ITF Monastir: Aziz Ouakaa vs Andrea Colombo BUY Andrea Colombo 40¢ $27 28m
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Kai Wehnelt SELL Dylan Dietrich 86¢ $19 49m
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Kai Wehnelt BUY Dylan Dietrich 82¢ $18 54m
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi BUY Antoine Ghibaudo 88¢ $441 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi BUY Antoine Ghibaudo 76¢ $4 1h
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio SELL Julie Pastikova 77¢ $8 2h
ITF Bolszewo: Julie Pastikova vs Victoria Bosio BUY Julie Pastikova 80¢ $9 2h
ITF Klosters: Adrienn Nagy vs Julia Stusek SELL Julia Stusek 72¢ $17 2h
ITF Klosters: Adrienn Nagy vs Julia Stusek BUY Julia Stusek 73¢ $17 2h
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) BUY Cerundolo 62¢ $23 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Felix Gill 52¢ $18 3h
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 64¢ $24 8h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Damir Dzum BUY Mikhail Kukushkin 53¢ $19 8h
Set Handicap: Parry (-1.5) vs Ito (+1.5) BUY Parry 58¢ $9 9h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-9.5) BUY Chicago Sky 52¢ $18 9h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5) BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $18 9h
Set 1 Winner: Dietrich vs Wehnelt BUY Dietrich 67¢ $27 10h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 77¢ $38 11h
Set 1 Winner: Osorio vs Tomljanovic BUY Tomljanovic 55¢ $20 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $15 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $15 13h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Fritz (+1.5) BUY Fritz 63¢ $10 14h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 91¢ $15 16h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 86¢ $14 16h
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 54¢ $19 19h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $18 21h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5) BUY Fokina 56¢ $6 21h
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Noah Karma SELL Noah Karma 66¢ $12 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,087.90 · official $1,087.92 (match) · 2865 history records