Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b2c…dbae crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$10
other 29% −$16
sports 2% −$2
world 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -9.3% -17.9% 40% 19% -10.4%
≤30d 52 -9.3% -17.9% 40% 19% -10.4%
≤90d 52 -9.3% -17.9% 40% 19% -10.4%
all 52 -9.3% -17.9% 40% 19% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 19% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 8% -18.9%
15% -32.9% 6% -26.8%
20% -39.5% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $77 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$11 +21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 23? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-2 Jun 23 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$8 +20%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Jun 23 $1 $0 -3%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$2 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $10 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $1 $0 -25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$23 +57%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +50%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $24 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $29 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 7m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $53 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $21 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $37 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $24 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $37 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 36m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 37m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? SELL Up 46¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 24? BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.14 · official $30.14 (match) · 147 history records