Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:29:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
0B 0x0b2d…601b crypto 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,022 (+71%) realized +$1,920 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$1,968
other 20% +$376
world 16% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+69.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +150.0% +126.2% 100% 100% +126.2%
≤30d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +0.5%
≤90d 14 +139.9% +117.0% 50% 50% +50.9%
all 32 +87.4% +69.5% 44% 44% +58.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.5% 44% +58.5%
10% +53.3% 41% +43.3%
15% +38.5% 31% +29.5%
20% +24.9% 28% +16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +178% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$219 vs −$62 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized+$1,920
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage148d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? Yes 52¢ 76¢ $125 $182 +$57 (+46%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $61 $112 +$51 (+84%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $23 $18 −$4 (-20%)
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will EUR/USD hit 1.14 (Low) in 2026? Jun 23 $80 +$120 +150%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 23 $50 +$50 +101%
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? May 20 $378 −$271 -72%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $91 +$172 +190%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? May 20 $68 −$7 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 20 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? May 20 $10 −$9 -85%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? May 20 $7 −$5 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 06 $73 +$27 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 05 $90 +$10 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? May 05 $180 −$170 -94%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $234 +$66 +28%
Will crypto payment cards volume hit $1.5B by March 31? May 01 $56 +$1,069 +1900%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 16 $98 +$152 +156%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 16 $48 +$352 +733%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 14 $66 +$17 +25%
Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in January? Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January? Feb 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 09 $100 +$169 +170%
Will Hyperliquid reach $38 by December 31, 2026? Feb 05 $125 +$34 +27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 February 2-8? Feb 05 $104 +$96 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 04 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 03 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first? Feb 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 02 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Feb 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Feb 02 $100 +$733 +733%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 29? Jan 29 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will EUR/USD hit 1.10 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.12 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $106 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 1h
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $104 23d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $107 37d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $45 37d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $74 37d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $145 37d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 37d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 37d
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 37d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $53 37d
Will EUR/USD hit 1.00 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 42d
Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 47d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY Yes 51¢ $9 47d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 48d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 50d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY Yes 70¢ $100 50d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 51d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 51d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 52d
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 52d
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $109 52d
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $47 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $73 52d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $90 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 5? BUY Yes 17¢ $180 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $325.31 · official $325.31 (match) · 111 history records