Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b2e…92b9 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%39W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$144
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$61
sports 28% +$47
crypto 4% +$6
world 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -37.2% -43.2% 20% 20% -57.5%
≤30d 47 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 30% -24.5%
≤90d 47 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 30% -24.5%
all 135 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 29% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 29% -11.0%
10% -18.7% 29% -19.5%
15% -26.6% 29% -27.3%
20% -33.8% 27% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses39 / 96
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage196d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$23 +710%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$11 +40%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$7 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +236%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 +$7 +67%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$8 +78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +47%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +542%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$10 +97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$12 +220%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +145%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$38 +710%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $21 +$12 +58%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-16? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fulham FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $20 +$18 +88%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $45 +$28 +61%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $73 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 68¢ $19 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $11 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 29h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.75 · official $75.77 (match) · 278 history records