Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b34…81c8 other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$452 (-1%) realized +$386 · open −$838
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate39%37W / 57L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$553per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$27,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$363
7 days+$898
14 days+$898
30 days−$832
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$1,418
sports 8% −$7
crypto 7% −$775
world 1% −$46
economics 1% +$7
politics 1% +$145
tech 0% −$40
weather 0% +$2
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +68.2% +52.2% 94% 75% +6.3%
≤30d 57 -4.7% -13.8% 40% 28% -12.8%
≤90d 79 -8.6% -17.3% 39% 27% -14.3%
all 94 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 26% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 26% -12.8%
10% -19.3% 20% -21.2%
15% -27.1% 18% -28.8%
20% -34.3% 11% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$77 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$27,301
Realized+$386
Unrealized−$838
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses37 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions56
Markets (closed)94 / 150
History coverage282d
Avg bet$553
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $7,752 $7,274 −$478 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,700 $5,650 −$50 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,860 $4,830 −$30 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,918 $3,746 −$171 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1,000 $970 −$30 (-3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $1,000 $938 −$62 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $510 $630 +$120 (+24%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 48¢ 62¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 56¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 79¢ 88¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 73¢ 80¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 54¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$49 +97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$36 +71%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,003 +$73 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$22 +43%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$141 +276%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,001 +$22 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$55 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $460 +$194 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,643 −$555 -12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? May 30 $204 −$17 -8%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $215 −$15 -7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $246 −$39 -16%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 28 $520 −$7 -1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $24 $0 -1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $200 −$81 -40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2,923 −$419 -14%
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch? May 26 $6,957 +$238 +3%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $1,264 −$19 -2%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 24 $672 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 24 $1,023 −$266 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 23 $128 −$25 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? May 23 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? May 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? May 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 23 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? May 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? May 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $130 +$5 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $30 −$1 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $76 −$2 -3%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 23 $320 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 22 $104 +$106 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 22 $270 −$21 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 22 $233 +$97 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 22 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $51 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,861 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3,515 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4,994 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $1,004 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $1,003 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1,004 46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7,436 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7,679 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $809 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,724 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $458 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,019 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2,395 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $276 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $381 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $561 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $527 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $244 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $410 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,183 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $506 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 48¢ $975 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,301.23 · official $27,301.30 (match) · 607 history records