Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b39…3189 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$366 (-51%) realized −$364 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$370
14 days−$370
30 days−$370
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$372
world 1% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.1% -36.8% 38% 38% -70.4%
≤30d 8 -30.1% -36.8% 38% 38% -70.4%
≤90d 9 -37.9% -43.8% 33% 33% -70.6%
all 9 -37.9% -43.8% 33% 33% -70.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.8% 33% -70.6%
10% -49.2% 33% -73.4%
15% -54.1% 33% -76.0%
20% -58.6% 22% -78.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$72 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized−$364
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage78d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $38 +$21 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $24 −$23 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +134%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $47 +$23 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $134 −$105 -79%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $8 −$5 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $19 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $38 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $57 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $38 12h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $79 33h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $22 33h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway vs. Senegal en BUY 26¢ $3 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $58 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $140 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $105 2d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 1¢ $3 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $2 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 2¢ $6 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.65 · official $130.67 (match) · 29 history records