Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0B 0x0b3c…a34a sports 578 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,632 (-8%) realized −$1,770 · open +$138
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%272W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$661now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$304
14 days−$478
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$1,708
other 7% +$54
crypto 2% −$180
world 2% +$59
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -27.8% -34.7% 37% 35% -43.0%
≤30d 198 -13.7% -21.9% 46% 45% -26.1%
≤90d 516 -15.1% -23.2% 43% 42% -22.6%
all 567 -7.4% -16.2% 48% 46% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 46% -17.9%
10% -24.2% 42% -25.8%
15% -31.5% 38% -33.0%
20% -38.2% 32% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$26 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$661
Realized−$1,770
Unrealized+$138
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses272 / 295
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions11
Markets (closed)567 / 578
History coverage127d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $28 $163 +$135 (+491%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $90 $120 +$30 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $90 $110 +$20 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $90 $80 −$10 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $90 $50 −$40 (-45%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $5 +$3 +62%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $92 +$7 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $13 +$9 +65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $125 −$11 -9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $7 +$7 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $37 +$20 +52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $2 +$1 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$6 -62%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +172%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $3 +$3 +114%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$4 +46%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $100 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $122 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $5 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $8 31h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $13 31h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 34h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $16 34h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $110 38h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $5 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $12 46h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 42¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $7 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 49¢ $7 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $10 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $8 3d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $660.88 · official $658.84 (match) · 1465 history records