Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b3c…9d06 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$14
sports 30% $0
other 19% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.1% -7.7% 67% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 23 -1.8% -11.1% 35% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 36 -1.9% -11.2% 36% 0% -10.3%
all 41 -6.3% -15.2% 39% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 0% -10.8%
10% -23.3% 0% -19.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -27.1%
20% -37.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage526d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 +$2 +6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $53 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28 −$1 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $70 −$7 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $103 −$2 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $69 −$7 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $3 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $12 −$3 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $102 +$4 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $21 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $45 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $49 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $45 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -9%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $254 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $220 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $221 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Karen Khachanov win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $19 8h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $9 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $28 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $17 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $21 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $26 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $26 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $26 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $26 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.89 · official $27.99 · 152 history records