Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0B 0x0b3e…d0be sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$36 (-19%) realized −$92 · open +$56

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip

Net edge-56%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-56.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-51.4%	-56.1%	33%	33%	-39.8%
≤30d	3	-51.4%	-56.1%	33%	33%	-39.8%
≤90d	3	-51.4%	-56.1%	33%	33%	-39.8%
all	3	-51.4%	-56.1%	33%	33%	-39.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-56.1%	33%	-39.8%
10%	-60.3%	33%	-45.5%
15%	-64.1%	33%	-50.8%
20%	-67.6%	0%	-55.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -33% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -51% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$30 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.38 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$130

Realized−$92

Unrealized+$56

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Spain	57¢	99¢	$74	$130	+$56 (+75%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	+$23	+46%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$10	−$10	-98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	57¢	$75	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$51	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.73 · official $129.73 (match) · 5 history records