Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0B 0x0b45…6685 other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$6 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 54L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$4
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$2
world 30% −$14
economics 18% +$2
sports 12% +$6
politics 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
culture 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 37 -3.7% -12.8% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 91 -1.9% -11.2% 41% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage375d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $142 $142 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $174 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $143 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $131 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $144 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $131 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $130 +$2 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $126 +$4 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $158 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $138 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $126 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $265 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $181 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $250 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $28 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $251 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $263 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $93 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $176 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $142 −$5 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $138 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $257 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $396 +$5 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $203 −$14 -7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $273 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $146 −$4 -3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $7 −$2 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $64 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $321 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $2,132 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $1,355 +$3 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $978 +$7 +1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $1,010 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $600 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $191 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jan 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 31 $6 +$2 +37%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $3 $0 -9%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $4 $0 -10%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Nov 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 24 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $4 $0 -6%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $9 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $142 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $85 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $130 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $130 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $90 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $40 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $143 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $143 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $44 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $91 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $35 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $131 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $76 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $9 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $144 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $19 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $131 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $119 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $132 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.68 · official $141.51 (match) · 494 history records