Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0b46…ed67 crypto 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,918 (-48%) realized −$4,915 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate80%153W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day163.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,871
sports 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -3.0% -12.3% 80% 38% -54.2%
≤30d 191 -3.0% -12.3% 80% 38% -54.2%
≤90d 191 -3.0% -12.3% 80% 38% -54.2%
all 191 -3.0% -12.3% 80% 38% -54.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 38% -54.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 21% -58.6%
15% -28.3% 13% -62.6%
20% -35.4% 5% -66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$153 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$4,915
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses153 / 38
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage2d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day163.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 91¢ 62¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$38 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$7 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $110 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $120 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $210 −$1 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $55 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $65 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $100 26m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.83 · official $6.72 (match) · 417 history records