Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b46…625f other 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 334d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,160 (-20%) realized −$1,003 · open −$157
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%45W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$339
14 days−$450
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$226
other 30% −$271
culture 13% −$548
politics 8% −$65
finance 6% −$76
tech 5% +$22
crypto 2% +$74
economics 1% −$43
sports 1% −$7
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -52.7% -57.2% 19% 11% -47.2%
≤30d 52 -26.3% -33.3% 29% 19% -40.0%
≤90d 63 -23.7% -31.0% 32% 22% -38.5%
all 151 -16.3% -24.3% 30% 25% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 25% -33.1%
10% -31.5% 23% -39.5%
15% -38.2% 19% -45.3%
20% -44.2% 19% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

334d coverage
Net worth$1,052
Realized−$1,003
Unrealized−$157
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses45 / 106
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions55
Markets (closed)151 / 206
History coverage334d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 78¢ $106 $111 +$5 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 74¢ 76¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+3%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $36 $45 +$10 (+27%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $90 $44 −$46 (-51%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 82¢ 97¢ $37 $44 +$7 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $36 $39 +$3 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 36¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 50¢ 98¢ $15 $30 +$15 (+97%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 52¢ 46¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 82¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-9%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 62¢ 64¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $22 $26 +$3 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-28%)
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 50¢ 32¢ $24 $15 −$9 (-35%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-24%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $5 $0 -10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $12 −$9 -76%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$7 -37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $59 −$20 -34%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $494 −$183 -37%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $68 −$47 -70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -79%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -90%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +62%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $37 −$9 -24%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 13 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -75%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 09 $15 −$6 -43%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 08 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $32 −$22 -70%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $40 −$37 -92%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $4 +$11 +262%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -89%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 06 $2 $0 -16%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +29%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $30 −$27 -89%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 02 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 02 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $20 −$17 -83%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $101 −$36 -36%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $20 +$61 +303%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 01 $70 −$52 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 95¢ $3 13m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 95¢ $3 3h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 95¢ $3 3h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 95¢ $3 3h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,051.91 · official $1,051.94 (match) · 751 history records