Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b46…aa9c sports 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%24W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$4
other 26% −$5
sports 23% −$4
crypto 10% −$1
culture 6% −$1
economics 5% −$2
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 68 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 186 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses24 / 162
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage170d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $11 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $38 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $148 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $159 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $37 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $71 +$2 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 12 $42 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $81 −$1 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $222 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $236 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 09 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 08 $121 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 08 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $175 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 03 $48 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 02 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 02 $207 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $35 1h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 93¢ $35 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $10 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $11 10d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $37 23d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 23d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $33 36d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $33 37d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $45 65d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $45 65d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $44 65d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 66d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 66d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 66d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $40 66d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 66d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $32 66d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $32 66d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 66d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $40 67d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $35 67d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $36 67d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $42 67d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $42 67d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $43 67d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $43 67d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $41 68d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $41 69d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $44 69d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $44 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 666 history records