Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0B 0x0b47…d64e crypto 75 markets active 4d ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+0%) realized +$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%72W / 3L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$1,916per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$333est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$30
14 days+$52
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$71
sports 8% −$9
world 1% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.5% -4.6% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤30d 4 +2.0% -7.7% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 29 -3.1% -12.3% 93% 0% -9.5%
all 75 -1.1% -10.5% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,327) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$40 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses72 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$333
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage194d
Avg bet$1,916
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $550 +$30 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $1,073 +$22 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? May 23 $526 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 18? May 18 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? May 15 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 4? May 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 6? May 06 $545 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 04 $522 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $9,735 +$9 +0%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Apr 28 $11,322 −$9 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 27? Apr 28 $1,820 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $2,460 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $66,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $7,032 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 24? Apr 26 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on April 24? Apr 26 $132 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on April 25? Apr 26 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 24? Apr 26 $984 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $1,327 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,900 on April 24? Apr 26 $2,118 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $16,097 +$15 +0%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) Apr 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on April 20? Apr 21 $356 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on April 20? Apr 21 $505 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $19,583 +$27 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 19? Apr 20 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 15? Apr 17 $519 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on April 4? Apr 13 $519 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on March 25? Mar 23 $301 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on March 23? Mar 22 $217 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 19? Feb 18 $518 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on February 16? Feb 15 $517 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on February 14? Feb 13 $428 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 14? Feb 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 13? Feb 12 $515 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 11 $514 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on February 9? Feb 10 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on February 11? Feb 10 $318 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 10? Feb 09 $318 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 8? Feb 08 $317 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 8? Feb 07 $316 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on February 6? Feb 07 $510 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,200 on February 6? Feb 04 $509 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on February 3? Feb 04 $509 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 1? Jan 31 $508 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on January 29? Jan 30 $508 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on January 27? Jan 28 $507 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on January 24? Jan 25 $507 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on January 22? Jan 23 $506 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on January 20? Jan 21 $506 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on January 17? Jan 20 $505 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 100¢ $580 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 95¢ $550 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $550 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $545 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $545 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $528 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $528 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $526 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $546 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $546 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $545 43d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $522 48d
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $71 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $877 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $18 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $5 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $23 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $5 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $15 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $62 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $9 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $460 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $49 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $3 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $3 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $3 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $2 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $5 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $30 50d
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 SELL Under 51¢ $210 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records