Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0B 0x0b48…b37d crypto 760 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (129 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,237 (-13%) realized −$2,285 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate35%424W / 777L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day129.2pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,138
7 days−$2,945
14 days−$2,867
30 days−$2,671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$195
sports 22% +$450
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 478 -95.6% -96.0% 2% 2% -64.2%
≤30d 1201 -36.4% -42.5% 35% 26% -22.5%
≤90d 1201 -36.4% -42.5% 35% 26% -22.5%
all 1201 -36.4% -42.5% 35% 26% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover129.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 26% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 16% -29.9%
15% -53.0% 10% -36.7%
20% -57.6% 6% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -76% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized−$2,285
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses424 / 777
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1201 / 760
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day129.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 48¢ 58¢ $374 $457 +$83 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 17¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 +$1 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 38¢ $136 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 11¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 20¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 10¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 25¢ $26 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 36¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $57 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $15 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $203 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $71 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $44 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $56 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 50¢ $36 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 10¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 10¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 60¢ $67 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 36¢ $100 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 10¢ $21 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 22¢ $41 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 35¢ $51 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 68¢ $87 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 69¢ $117 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 10¢ $7 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $102 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $162 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $20 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.81 · official $456.81 (match) · 3500 history records