Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b4c…1fa8 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 30% −$2
politics 12% $0
culture 5% −$3
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -4.3% -13.4% 46% 15% -8.7%
all 47 -3.4% -12.6% 28% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 6% -9.3%
10% -21.0% 4% -18.0%
15% -28.6% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage269d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $52 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $58 −$2 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $58 −$5 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $42 +$6 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $46 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $1 $0 +32%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $17 $0 +1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jan 31 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 31 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 18 $5 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 09 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 09 $12 $0 -4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 08 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Oct 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $23 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $23 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $16 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $29 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $43 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 28d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $1 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $14 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $8 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $44 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $23 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $27 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $27 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $52 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 30d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $19 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $46 32d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 33d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $58 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 33d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $4 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $46 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $3 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records