Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0b51…2cf4 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$1,112 (+26%) realized +$1,116 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days+$530
14 days+$810
30 days+$810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$1,090
sports 29% −$209
world 3% −$145
crypto 2% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -14.4% -22.5% 44% 44% +3.6%
≤30d 33 +54.1% +39.4% 52% 52% +7.8%
≤90d 33 +54.1% +39.4% 52% 52% +7.8%
all 33 +54.1% +39.4% 52% 52% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.4% 52% +7.8%
10% +26.1% 52% -2.5%
15% +13.9% 52% -11.9%
20% +2.7% 42% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +146% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$84 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$1,116
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage10d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) DR Congo 65¢ 62¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $146 +$73 +50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $437 +$540 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $146 −$145 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $147 +$80 +55%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $153 +$107 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $21 +$12 +57%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$39 -77%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$7 -34%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 +$8 +77%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $733 +$455 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $72 −$70 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $52 −$23 -44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $147 −$104 -71%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -51%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $102 +$61 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $289 +$120 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $293 +$146 +50%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +306%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1420%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $147 −$145 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $150 +$258 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $203 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 42¢ $102 11h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 65¢ $101 11h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $102 11h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $101 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $146 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $437 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $146 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $146 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 58¢ $153 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 64¢ $102 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $52 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 10¢ $12 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 27¢ $14 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $21 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 13¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 41¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 92¢ $18 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $10 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $147 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $733 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $72 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 22¢ $29 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 38¢ $52 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.15 · official $96.15 (match) · 58 history records