Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

0B 0x0b51…25f1 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$249 (-14%) realized −$247 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip

Net edge+22%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%8W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$90per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit70%portable

Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$127

14 days+$135

30 days+$135

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)+22.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+618.3%	+549.9%	100%	100%	+549.9%
≤30d	2	+347.3%	+304.7%	100%	100%	+387.8%
≤90d	2	+347.3%	+304.7%	100%	100%	+387.8%
all	15	+34.8%	+22.0%	53%	53%	-20.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.0%	53%	-20.3%
10%	+10.3%	53%	-27.9%
15%	-0.4%	40%	-34.9%
20%	-10.1%	33%	-41.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +439% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +43% → late +27% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$86 vs −$125 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.79 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage

Net worth$48

Realized−$247

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses8 / 7

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage238d

Avg bet$90

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5)	France	35¢	34¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina	Jun 17	$21	+$127	+618%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$10	+$8	+76%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16?	Jan 16	$46	−$46	-100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16?	Jan 16	$126	−$126	-100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5)	Jan 15	$100	−$100	-100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)	Jan 15	$100	−$100	-100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?	Jan 14	$200	+$50	+25%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14?	Jan 14	$200	−$200	-100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?	Jan 14	$142	+$58	+41%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-13?	Jan 14	$100	+$150	+150%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Nov 10	$100	+$133	+133%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	Nov 10	$100	+$156	+156%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 09	$300	−$200	-67%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Nov 09	$100	−$100	-100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)	Oct 29	$20	+$5	+24%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: France (-3.5)	BUY France	35¢	$51	1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on	BUY	24¢	$51	31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win	BUY	8¢	$10	5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina	BUY	14¢	$21	5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5	BUY Over	56¢	$10	8d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Uni	BUY	26¢	$20	11d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND	BUY	5¢	$10	11d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16?	BUY Yes	38¢	$46	157d
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$126	157d
Spread: Lakers (-4.5)	BUY Lakers	50¢	$100	158d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)	BUY Rockets	52¢	$100	158d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$250	158d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-14?	BUY Yes	80¢	$200	159d
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14?	BUY Yes	75¢	$200	159d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$200	159d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$250	159d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-13?	BUY Yes	40¢	$100	160d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?	BUY Yes	71¢	$142	160d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY KT Rolster	41¢	$200	225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	SELL T1	59¢	$164	225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	36¢	$100	225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	39¢	$100	225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	43¢	$100	225d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	BUY KT Rolster	42¢	$100	225d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)	BUY Gen.G	81¢	$20	238d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.86 · official $50.71 · 30 history records