Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b52…8aa4 sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,491 (-8%) realized −$1,491 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 56L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$362
sports 29% −$1,219
world 8% −$621
crypto 3% −$20
weather 0% −$61
finance 0% +$6
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +19.1% +7.8% 41% 31% -10.1%
≤30d 29 +19.1% +7.8% 41% 31% -10.1%
≤90d 31 +11.4% +0.8% 39% 29% -17.8%
all 87 -10.8% -19.3% 36% 30% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 30% -13.9%
10% -27.0% 18% -22.1%
15% -34.1% 17% -29.6%
20% -40.5% 8% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$59 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$1,491
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage187d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- Jun 17 $8 +$91 +1070%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$79 +154%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$9 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$3 +8%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $28 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$3 -29%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$59 +97%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $13 +$6 +42%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $32 −$12 -36%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $69 −$28 -41%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 29? Mar 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 29? Mar 28 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $102 −$2 -2%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 04 $2,798 +$336 +12%
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 04 $64 +$6 +10%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 04 $104 −$23 -22%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $221 −$68 -31%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 04 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 04 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Mar 04 $49 −$2 -4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 04 $303 −$147 -48%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 04 $138 −$3 -2%
Valorant: T1 vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 04 $93 +$40 +43%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 03 $29 −$25 -88%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $170 −$1 -0%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Mar 03 $241 +$30 +12%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Gro Mar 03 $50 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 3? Mar 02 $40 −$1 -4%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 02 $102 +$98 +96%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 02 $2,282 −$53 -2%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 01 $13 −$12 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $9 23m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $9 24m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- SELL 52¢ $99 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $19 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $26 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $27 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 32¢ $31 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $18 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $14 9h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- BUY 4¢ $8 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $35 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $25 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $25 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.22 · official $49.22 · 527 history records