Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0B 0x0b57…5d9a sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$434 (+10%) realized +$432 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$454per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$517
crypto 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.8% -13.9% 56% 56% +1.0%
≤30d 9 -4.8% -13.9% 56% 56% +1.0%
≤90d 9 -4.8% -13.9% 56% 56% +1.0%
all 9 -4.8% -13.9% 56% 56% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 56% +1.0%
10% -22.1% 56% -8.7%
15% -29.7% 56% -17.5%
20% -36.6% 22% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$379 vs −$350 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized+$432
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$454
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 50¢ $228 $230 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $198 +$94 +48%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $992 +$934 +94%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $388 −$382 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $268 +$117 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $919 +$346 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $512 +$407 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $292 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $198 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $231 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,925 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $992 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $388 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $385 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $268 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,265 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $919 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $512 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $13 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,010 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.33 · official $230.33 (match) · 17 history records