Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b5f…cd1f sports 17 markets active 5h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-5%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% $0
other 5% −$3
world 4% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.1% -15.1% 62% 62% -14.9%
≤30d 16 -6.1% -15.1% 62% 62% -14.9%
≤90d 16 -6.1% -15.1% 62% 62% -14.9%
all 16 -6.1% -15.1% 62% 62% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 62% -14.9%
10% -23.2% 56% -23.0%
15% -30.6% 38% -30.5%
20% -37.4% 31% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $8 +$2 +29%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $13 +$4 +28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $20 −$16 -79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $6 +$5 +79%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $19 +$10 +51%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $10 −$9 -93%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $9 +$5 +54%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $4 +$3 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Minnesota Twins 95¢ $10 5h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 73¢ $8 5h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 68¢ $15 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Atlanta Dream 100¢ $16 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 31¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 50¢ $1 3d
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 74¢ $12 3d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics $10 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 27¢ $5 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 55¢ $4 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 63¢ $5 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 100¢ $29 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 76¢ $10 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $9 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks $1 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $14 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $11 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $9 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $6 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $3 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 16¢ $0 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $10 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $1 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $12 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 5d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $7 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 97¢ $15 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records