Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b60…9975 crypto 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$787 (+16%) realized +$396 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%56W / 71L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day58.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days+$396
14 days+$396
30 days+$396
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$342
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -1.4%
≤30d 127 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -1.4%
≤90d 127 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -1.4%
all 127 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 39% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 39% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 35% -10.9%
15% -29.2% 31% -19.5%
20% -36.2% 25% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$27 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$396
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses56 / 71
Open positions2
Markets (closed)127 / 129
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day58.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $55 $1 −$54 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $97 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$36 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $67 +$42 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$12 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$21 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $44 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$16 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $36 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$30 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$12 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $47 +$56 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $39 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$54 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $20 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $30 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $73 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $16 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $15 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $109 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $20 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.87 · official $146.75 · 438 history records