Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:03:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b61…230e other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$116 (+3%) realized +$124 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$872
14 days+$872
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$723
sports 41% +$787
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +21.5% +9.9% 44% 42% +22.4%
≤30d 47 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 34% -7.1%
≤90d 47 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 34% -7.1%
all 47 -2.4% -11.7% 36% 34% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 34% -7.1%
10% -20.2% 32% -16.0%
15% -27.9% 30% -24.1%
20% -34.9% 28% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$65 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$392
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage22d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 45¢ 44¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$55 +55%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$33 -64%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$42 -81%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$19 +37%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $51 +$7 +13%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$243 +474%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $112 −$47 -42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$39 -77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$96 -94%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$12 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$16 -31%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 −$55 -71%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$127 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$22 -43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$754 +734%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $279 +$339 +121%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$98 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$85 -84%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? May 30 $103 −$100 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? May 30 $103 −$100 -98%
Republic of Ireland leading at halftime? May 30 $1 +$1 +114%
Republic of Ireland vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar leading at halftime? May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $103 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 45¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $102 19h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $51 19h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 19h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 28¢ $51 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $61 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $51 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $51 28h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $19 28h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 62¢ $70 28h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 28h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 30h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 49¢ $57 30h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 30h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $6 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $3 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $2 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $1 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 26¢ $45 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $392.41 · official $392.41 (match) · 88 history records