Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0B 0x0b63…a379 weather 263 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+0%) realized +$71 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%245W / 9L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$438per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$231
crypto 3% −$201
politics 2% +$30
sports 1% +$3
other 0% +$2
world 0% −$7
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 202 -0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$28 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$3,375
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses245 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)254 / 263
History coverage154d
Avg bet$438
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,400 $1,401 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $699 $699 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $495 $495 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $318 $318 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $172 $172 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $135 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2,555 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? May 22 $1,549 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $376 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 22? May 21 $3,024 +$28 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 20? May 21 $1,014 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 20? May 21 $157 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 20? May 21 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 20? May 21 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17? May 20 $114 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17? May 20 $155 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on May 20? May 20 $1,041 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 20? May 20 $1,838 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 20? May 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 20? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 20? May 20 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 20? May 20 $176 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15? May 18 $2,044 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? May 18 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 17? May 17 $1,350 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 17? May 17 $118 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $146 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $267 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $1,052 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $206 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 16? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 15? May 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 16? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 15? May 15 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 15? May 15 $284 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 14? May 15 $4,175 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 15? May 15 $413 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 15? May 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or higher on May 14? May 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14? May 14 $4,252 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 14? May 14 $241 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on May 14? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 18°C on May 14? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 14? May 13 $284 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 13 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12? May 13 $3,646 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 13? May 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 21°C on May 13? May 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 13? May 12 $237 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 13? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $809 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 12? May 12 $807 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on May 12? May 12 $686 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11? May 12 $494 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $318 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $699 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $135 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $126 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,400 9h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $172 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $282 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $8 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,498 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $23 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $495 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $747 31d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 31d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 31d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $676 31d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 22? BUY No 97¢ $376 31d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 22? BUY No 99¢ $2,918 31d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,512 31d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $14 31d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $11 32d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $115 32d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 32d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $11 32d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,375.29 · official $3,375.29 (match) · 770 history records