Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b63…49be politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% $0
world 37% +$1
other 9% −$2
weather 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.4% -7.3% 22% 11% -9.3%
≤30d 11 +3.4% -6.5% 27% 18% -9.4%
≤90d 11 +3.4% -6.5% 27% 18% -9.4%
all 44 +0.4% -9.1% 36% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage318d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 78¢ 78¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $91 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $46 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$3 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $92 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$2 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +19%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $6 $0 +7%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 18 $3 $0 +7%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 13 $79 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Aug 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $8 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $1 $0 -6%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $15 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 09 $8 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Aug 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in August? Aug 08 $3 $0 -6%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 08 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 08 $1 $0 +9%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $88 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 08 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Aug 07 $98 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 78°F or higher on August 7? Aug 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 07 $78 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 405–419 times August 1–August 8? Aug 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 06 $4 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 06 $10 $0 +3%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $49 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $5 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $40 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $45 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $10 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 41h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $24 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $46 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $46 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $46 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $47 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $48 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 17¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.45 · official $49.45 (match) · 184 history records