Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b65…013e world 450 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,460 (+3%) realized +$4,260 · open +$200
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%241W / 143L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$11,777now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$533
14 days−$734
30 days+$965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$575
politics 33% +$2,318
other 14% −$181
sports 5% +$569
crypto 3% +$619
culture 3% +$92
tech 1% +$207
finance 1% −$345
economics 0% +$100
weather 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -4.8% -13.9% 62% 41% -2.7%
≤30d 125 -5.1% -14.2% 58% 34% -7.3%
≤90d 346 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 37% -6.8%
all 384 +3.2% -6.6% 63% 37% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 37% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 25% -15.4%
15% -23.7% 19% -23.6%
20% -31.2% 15% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$72 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$11,777
Realized+$4,260
Unrealized+$200
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses241 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions66
Markets (closed)384 / 450
History coverage110d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 79¢ 99¢ $865 $1,087 +$222 (+26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $978 $968 −$10 (-1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $586 $597 +$10 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $574 $577 +$3 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $456 $537 +$81 (+18%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $455 $478 +$22 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 37¢ 55¢ $315 $474 +$159 (+50%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 74¢ 78¢ $434 $463 +$29 (+7%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $428 $430 +$2 (+0%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 86¢ 83¢ $430 $415 −$15 (-3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 75¢ 99¢ $299 $396 +$97 (+32%)
Spain snap election called in 2026? No 68¢ 58¢ $357 $305 −$51 (-14%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $293 $298 +$5 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $222 $298 +$76 (+34%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $294 $291 −$3 (-1%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $270 $289 +$19 (+7%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $280 $288 +$8 (+3%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 43¢ $285 $258 −$27 (-9%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $264 $250 −$14 (-5%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 58¢ 51¢ $233 $204 −$29 (-12%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $182 $200 +$18 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $185 $199 +$14 (+8%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $172 $198 +$26 (+15%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $185 $187 +$2 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 49¢ 86¢ $98 $172 +$74 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $264 +$36 +14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $146 +$154 +106%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $349 −$192 -55%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $242 −$132 -55%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $718 +$249 +35%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,661 +$39 +2%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 18 $94 +$20 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $108 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $916 +$60 +6%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $212 −$44 -20%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $855 +$43 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $750 −$6 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $109 +$40 +37%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $259 +$41 +16%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$11 +94%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $263 +$58 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$100 +100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$45 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 +$100 +100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $43 +$57 +133%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $150 +$50 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $150 +$50 +33%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Colombian presidential election in the f Jun 13 $568 +$11 +2%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% Jun 13 $55 $0 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $425 +$17 +4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $80 +$14 +18%
Will VOX (VOX) win 16-18 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 30? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the second round Jun 12 $57 −$43 -75%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $302 −$150 -50%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 3¢ $2 7m
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 4¢ $35 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $106 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $150 4h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $39 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $11 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $56 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $5 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $41 6h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $36 6h
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? SELL No 52¢ $52 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 17h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 18h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $106 18h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 18h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 18h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 18h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 18h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 45¢ $2 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 45¢ $145 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 45¢ $10 19h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 80¢ $0 22h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 80¢ $7 22h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,776.62 · official $11,776.66 (match) · 3270 history records