Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:53:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0B 0x0b65…82d6 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% +$2
other 13% −$1
culture 5% $0
politics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 1% −$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.2%
all 26 -1.7% -11.0% 50% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage474d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $31 +$1 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $9 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $24 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $10 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $49 +$1 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 03 $16 $0 -3%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 27 $16 $0 +0%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dwight Howard make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall Mar 19 $14 $0 +1%
Wake Forest vs. Duke Mar 03 $4 −$2 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $13 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $16 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 21h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 31h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $37 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $5 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $6 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $47 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $47 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.41 · official $50.41 (match) · 86 history records