Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0B 0x0b65…8e27 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$694 (+7%) realized +$694 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate69%27W / 12L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days+$28
14 days−$73
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$368
crypto 30% +$166
sports 12% +$39
other 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.3% -8.4% 72% 33% -8.2%
≤30d 27 -1.3% -10.7% 63% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -1.6% -11.0% 69% 33% -4.1%
all 39 -1.6% -11.0% 69% 33% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 33% -4.1%
10% -19.5% 23% -13.3%
15% -27.3% 21% -21.7%
20% -34.4% 10% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$64 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$694
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses27 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage88d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $103 +$81 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$71 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 28 $128 +$50 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$38 +37%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $274 +$20 +7%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $100 −$94 -93%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $50 +$5 +10%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $378 +$33 +9%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) Jun 25 $50 +$4 +9%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $30 +$9 +28%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $300 +$65 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$49 -48%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $250 −$51 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $77 +$31 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$65 +249%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $151 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $152 +$26 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $261 +$40 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 25 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 25 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 25 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 24 $413 +$336 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 24 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 24 $250 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 23 $102 +$39 +38%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $5,001 +$378 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 31 $57 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $185 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $97 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $294 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $274 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 6¢ $7 2h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 98¢ $55 2h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 84¢ $100 2h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 100¢ $51 25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 97¢ $20 25h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 97¢ $30 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 100¢ $385 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 99¢ $25 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 96¢ $157 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 90¢ $201 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 79¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 118 history records